As the country is waiting for the outcome of the five state assembly elections results.There is high unpredictability especially in four-cornered contest in Uttar Pradesh.A few hundreds of crores are at stake in satta market predicting winning candidates, coalition governments, President’s rule; number of constituencies won, percentage of vote share and God knows what else. With UP being favorite of bookies, odds are 1:1.1 in favor of President’s rule and 1:1.2 for Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance. But it is shocking to see youth of India predicting Rahul Gandhi to be next Chief Minister of the state.It is well known fact that Rahul baba has been devoting more time for these polls than anything else, with prime focus on UP from eating with poor people to staying in their homes, he has done it all. But interesting thing is not what all he is doing, in fact the reason why is he doing all this, even when congress is well established in center. Why he is not enjoying all the power and smelling dust in fields of UP.
There are several reasons for this, first and foremost is UP has been contributing major share of MPs for Lok Sabha i.e 80 out of 543.Another fact is out of thirteen Prime Ministers, UP has provided India with eight Prime Ministers, this explains the importance of UP polls. If, Congress wants to improve its overall condition in India, it desperately needs to work on UP part. It seems Congress is no longer comfortable with forming a coalition government at center. Sharing powers at center with smaller players has its own problems and congress might have seen them all. Tough it doesn’t seems that congress will be able to form government on their own at center but still it can shun some stubborn MPs and will be in a position to choose from a lot.
Though, it is highly unlikely that congress will be eyeing first place in UP polls, as that is too far from practicality, but they will be highly satisfied with third place as well. Congress will look forward to increase their vote share, as it may not be able to win elections on their own, but still they can manage to win sufficient constituencies so that they can form a coalition government with Samajwadi Party at state level. If that comes true, congress will be in a position to play a master stroke of present Indian politics; they may give support to Samajwadi Party at state level, and in return will ask for support at center. Samajwadi Party with 22 MPs in 15th Lok Sabha, will be a good partner to have. This will give them choice to say good bye to All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) (19 seats) or Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)(18 seats) and choose SP. Most likely Congress will part ways with AITC, and if that happens Congress will be in better position to pass those pending bills, on which it has been working from many years. AITC, as partner has created more problems for Congress then finding solutions to the problems, be it is FDI’s in retail, Teesta water pact, or NCTC, it is behaving as angry and aggressive wife, who agreed to share bed first but now is having problem with each and every move of Congress. If SP lends support for Congress at center, it cannot afford to be aggressive, as it will be more than happy to rule UP after a long gap and will try to reestablish itself there. Second thing is, Congress forming government in UP, will be outcome of Rahul Baba’s time devotion and will establish him as potential Prime Ministerial candidate and will be much needed relief for Gandhi parivaar. Thirdly, if Congress will be able to pass those pending bills, it will give them edge for next general elections and will give them some agendas to cover the damage done by corruption cases. Fourthly, Congress will be able to find a answer for Mayawati’s social engineering politics.
But Congress is taking each step very consciously, with diggy uncle saying that madam Sonia and rahul baba are congress’s national leader who are not to be blamed for Congress’s bad performance in UP, and rather taking responsibility of any such performance on himself. It’s a situation in which Congress will not let anybody tarnish Rahul’s image at any cost, even if it losses. And, if they win all that will be because of Rahul Baba and we may end up seeing him as next Prime Minister of India.
Rohit Garg
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